Jordan and I decided to look up some stats on high risk days and tornadoes and it’s quite amazing how well the SPC really does on its high risk outlooks. According to Wikipedia their have been 80 known high risk days since 1984 and 16 of those where considered busts, although the definition of a “Bust” on the wiki page is quite vague “Busts indicate days that a severe weather outbreak was expected but never materialized”. Doing a bit of further looking we found that the NSSL Sais “That perhaps as few as 20 percent of all supercell thunderstorms actually produce tornadoes”.  So should we be seeing a tornado 8 times out of 10 when we chase a high risk day??? Well not really because we can’t be everywhere at once. So what’s all this mean? Although we have allot to learn about tornado forecasting it seems like we know enough to pick out most of the perfect events.

Let me know what you think and we will try to explore this in this weeks show.


Wikipedia article

NSSL article