UPDATE 12:51 AM CST 11-24.

Well this is a tough forecast. CAPE values are going to be the key for this event if we can see 1000 j/kg or so in a large area we should get some decent storms. SPC Day 1 is out they are talking about MO for the best tornado chances, the 00z models are agreeing pushing things a bit more north again,, so who knows. the HRRR has the front in Wichita, KS at 17z and just east by 18z so that opens up the whole spc 5% for strong storms.

Tyler.

UPDATE! 8:15 PM CST 11-23.

The new runs of the WRF are showing the show a bit south of the last runs more in line with GFS. My current forecast is McAlester, OK to Ft Smith, AR tomorrow around 19 – 20z.

Tyler.

Wednesday 11-24 is looking like we could see a tornado outbreak if the current model data holds true. The WRF is showing SE KS, SW MO, NE OK and NW AR while the GFS has a SE OK, SW AR, and N TX target. Will just have to wait and see how things come together when the 0z runs come in. The Storm Patrol will be on the road bright and early to chase this event check back to the site for updates and LIVE VIDEO once the chase starts. We should also have updates on Facebook and Twitter.

Tyler.

mcalester
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