It’s looking like we are in for a repeat of yesterday just moved to the North West. The SPC has a 10% hatched for strong tornadoes in VA, NC, and SC.  At the time of this post their where two tornado watches in effect for AL, GA and FL. I expect that the severe weather will continue all day before peaking after dark in the 10% hatched area of VA, NC, and SC. Forecast analysis. HPC 15z surface analysis shows a 994mb low just north of the great lakes in Canada with an occluded front extending south to central Tennessee from their a cold front extends south to the gulf coast and a warm front winds its way east and north east GA, SC, NC and VA to the Atlantic. The cold front should be the focus for development across AL, GA, and FL today shifting east this evening where the warm front should come in to the picture as energy transfers into the SPC 10% region later on.  There is a large tough at 500mb and copious amounts of vorticity along the cold front combined with the placement of the surface low WRF / HRRR models are showing 1km SRH values well over 200 m^2/s^2 for the risk area  at 3z. The question is when will the instability reach the risk area at this time my guess is 3z – 4z or so going by HRRR / WRF analysis.  The storm mode will likely be the same as last night with QLCS, bows, and supercells all being possible.  Strong tornadoes are also looking more and more likely the 12z RAOBs from WAL and RNK show large curved hodographs with critical angles near 90deg based on bunkers storm motion. Western Georgia would be my target following the system to the east with time. This is not the highest tornado risk area but IMO the best chance for seeing daytime tornadoes.
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