The SPC has put a large area of the southern plains and Mississippi valley under moderate risk for tomorrow. This means conditions are looking ripe for supercell thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, some strong and long track. In short a severe weather outbreak. The bulk of the activity looks to be after dark compounding the threat the storms are going to be fast moving. So take some time right now to go over your plan in case of a tornado. FEMA has a nice article “What to do during a tornado” check that out. The Storm Patrol will be out chasing this event so check back tomorrow afternoon and evening to see if we are live. A bit of meteorology. The WRF / GFS Show a warm front / dryline setup with an open warm sector extending across eastern OK into AR. I have some doubts whether or not the cap will break in the open warm sector until after dark. I have attached some images showing where the GFS / WRF have the boundaries at 0z as well as some forecast skew-t’s showing the cap over Bartlesville, OK and Tulsa, OK at 0z. Have a look at this page on Jon Davies site explaining 700mb temps and cap strength. Model data from weather.cod.edu, Forecast SKEW-T's from NIU's Storm Machine Data may be old do not use for protection of life and property.  Use http://www.spc.noaa.gov for current outlooks
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