We sat in Elk County, KS all day for the most part with nothing to show. We got to Severy, KS around 2pm and parked at the gas station on US 400. At the gas station we watched cells fire to our SSE and move NE. This first round of storms produced some severe wind / hail reports but no tornadoes.

displayN0R20z radar image showing the first round of storms

After the first storm we dropped south on KS highway 99 to Moline, KS where we got on a small storm, and chased it to the east on US 160. That second round of convection just couldn't sustain as several small cells fired just to die 15 - 20 miles NE. It appears in the post mortem that the initial storms added just enough CIN to keep the storms that fired after from becoming established. The SPC Meso Analysis graphics at the time showed 2000 j/kg of CAPE in our target area with very little CIN.

00_mlcp0z SPC Meso Analysis image MLCAPE / MLCIN

My thinking is that the models didn't take into account the mesoscale changes along the stationary front in SE KS using radar and limited surface input. The only 0z RAOB sites in the area are Topeka, KS, Norman, OK, Dodge City, KS, Springfield, MO and Lamont, OK. With the lack of representative input data for the timing and orientation of the front, the models didn't really stand a chance of getting the sub mesoscale environment correct along the front. Storms did fire to the west where the atmosphere hadn't been disturbed by early convection. There were some tornadoes near the front dryline intersection and down the dryline in Oklahoma.


Here are a few images that will help make sense of the event. 23z radar image, surface analysis, storm reports for the event, and soundings from the previously mentioned sites. As always thanks for watching the live stream how ever boring! Tyler...