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The Storm Patrol

The coolest show on four wheels.


Category: Forecasts
Jordan and Tyler are in the field chasing a 10% Hatched tornado risk at the time of this post we are headed to Wichita, KS but we will likely go either north or south from Wichita depending on the forecast. Check out our live stream and watch for video updated on Facebook and Twitter! day1probotlk_1300_torn day1otlk_1300
The Storm Patrol is westbound and down headed out to a decent looking chase somewhere in Western Kansas or Oklahoma or maybe even the Texas Panhandle! Looking at the morning analysis we have a pacific cold front extending from a surface low near Burlington, CO to Boise City, OK to Dalhart, TX where a dry line intersects the front from Dalhart, TX to Presidio, TX on the Mexican border. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a moderate risk of severe weather including some strong tornadoes in a large area including Southern Nebraska, Western and Central  Kansas and Oklahoma and a small part of Western North Texas. namussfcwbg The big question for The Storm Patrol today is how will morning storms affect the severe weather event later today? Will we need to head to Western Kansas or Southwest Oklahoma? How will the ongoing storm near Shamrock, TX progress as it moves Northeast into Central and North Oklahoma? The answers to these questions should become more clear later this afternoon. I would expect to see special soundings launched in the 18-21z time frame this will help determine our target.

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 657

    If you are looking for weather information for this event here are some links. Storm Prediction Center We will be LIVE streaming this event as usual today and doing some Periscopes from time to time. Check us out on Facebook and Twitter for updates on today's chase.  
The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting severe weather outbreaks this Friday 5-8-2015 and Saturday 5-9-2015 across the southern plains. The Storm Patrol is going to head out early Friday morning to chase this event. We will be live streaming our chase during the afternoon hours Friday and Saturday. This is going to be a large scale severe weather outbreak! If you live in the risk areas make your severe weather plans now don't wait until the last minute! Also remember to stay weather aware Friday and Saturday! Here are some links to find official forecasts for this event Storm Prediction Center Here are the convective outlook graphics from the SPC.

Day 2 Friday 5-8-2015

  SPC Day 2 Outlook 1730z

Day 3 Saturday 5-9-2015

SPC Day 3 Outlook 0730z Tyler
day1otlk_1630 Jordan and I will be chasing locally later today. We are going to target extreme Southeast Kansas and Northeast Oklahoma. The RPM / HRRR fire very isolated storms around 23z (6pm CDT) right around the KS, OK, MO tri-state border. 1ref_t5sfc_f09 Right now we have a decent cu field across the area ahead of slow moving cold front associated with a surface low near Stillwater, OK. Surface dewpoint temperatures are in the mid 60’s across the warm sector and MLCAPE values of 2000 j/kg are some of the enhancing factors. Some of the negative factors for today’s event are low values of ESRH and Southwest surface winds. Since we are basically at the target it might be a while until be start streaming will let everyone know with updated posts on and Twitter @thestormpatrol

This is just a snapshot of what we are thinking this is not intended to be used as a forecast!

Here are some links to offical forecasts of today's severe weather event. The National Weather Service The Storm Prediction Center Tyler  
The fire danger in Oklahoma is of the charts today! Extremely dry conditions dewpoints in the 20s with temps over 100 deg makes for relative humidity values in the single digits! With dry southwest winds gusting in the 40mph range and a chance for dry thunderstorms this could be one of the worst wildfire events Oklahoma has seen in years! I have attached some images that where current around 3:30 CDT THEY DO NOT UPDATE! PLEASE check with your local media and use the current weather links for timely information concerning this event! day1otlk_fire Link to the Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Link to the Oklahoma Mesonet (real-time weather information) You can follow storm chasers who are live streaming the event at and Also you can access the satellite fire spotting systems here NOAA GOES Fire spotting system NOAA Fire and Smoke Satellite Products Tyler Costantini
It looks like we could have a couple of chase days coming up Wednesday 5-7 and Thursday 5-8. So far looking at the models I’m not real impressed with Wednesday but things could change so keep an eye out for changes to the forecast. Thursday looks like a better risk for severe weather but it’s a bit far out for a good forecast. The Storm Prediction Center it’s talking about more of a linear complex but we are still talking 4 days out and morning convection could spoil the show, so I always say we won’t know until the day of!

Wednesday 5-27-2014

Thursday 5-28-2014

This data and graphics are not intended to be used for protection of life or property they are just my opinion of a weather event please consult official sources for your weather forecast needs. Tyler.