Well this will likely never happen again in our chasing career, somehow we managed to intercept two EF-5 tornadoes in two days. The Joplin, MO tornado and the El Reno, OK tornado. I will post some images and video here when I have some more time.
Tyler Costantini
I will never forget this day as long as I live! Joplin, MO was hit with a strong tornado leveling a large swath of town. The damage extends roughly from 15th street south to around 32nd street and from the KS / MO state line east to I44 around mile marker 11. I have put some pictures up on our facebook page I will try and have some more updates as we have time to post everything.
The people of Joplin are certainly in my thoughts.
Tyler Costantini.
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There is a major tornado outbreak underway along the east coast. The SPC has issued a HIGH risk for strong / long track tornadoes; they also have a PDS particularly dangerous situation tornado watch in effect for the area. I haven’t been around the computer as much as I would like today but here are some images and meteorological data from the event. Please note some of this data may not be current please see official sources for current information the storms are moving very fast adding to the danger.
I know there are a lot of images I will try and put some notes with them later.
Tyler.
It’s looking like we may see an outbreak! This is a very impressive system we will defiantly be chasing!
This is just a quick update to post some images / links.
I have attached some nam forecast soundings based on the 18z name for Topeka, KS , Joplin, MO , Chanute, KS , Joplin, MO , Tulsa, OK and Ponca City, OK. Check the id on the sounding they may not be in that order.
I just had a look at the 00z run of the GFS and NAM, all I can say is WOW! The models are now coming into agreement the ECMWF has shown a negatively tilted trough for some time, but as of the 4-12 0z run the NAM / GFS are coming into agreement. GFS / NAM now show a negatively tilted 500mb trough with a ski jump! The GFS has quite a bit less instability compared to the NAM and the moisture return is a tad on the iffy side. But with upper level dynamics of this magnitude this could turn out to be quite the event it’s worth watching to see if the models fail anyway.
It’s a day or so too early for me to get really excited I will try and post some updates throughout the next few days.
I have attached some model forecast charts from twisterdata.com
Here are some links to Jeff Haby’s page that explain some of the topics like negatively tilted trough and the ski jump (divergence / diffluence) aloft
WHAT IS A “NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH”?
Tyler.
UPDATE 4-12 1:15am cdt
I had sometime to look over the level2 radar data today and it looks like you can see the circulation of the gustnado on radar. You can also see from the title change i have switched sides and went with a strong gustnado the main reason being is this radar data. The radar data shows the circulations are not part of the main mesocyclone and are along the gust front being sucked into the meso. Reed Timmer was talking about a paper by Howie Bluestien that talks about gustnadoes getting sucked into the primary circulation of a supercell i did i quick search and couldn’t find the paper so if someone knows the title let me know.
UPDATE: 4-11 7:15pm cdt.
Here is a link to Jon Davies blog where he has a really nice write up on this event.
Also here is a really good essay Jon did on the whole Tornado / Gustnado idea.
UPDATE: 4-4 4:30 pm cdt.
Here is a radar loop i drew the boundary on i will extend it all the way to the spot where we saw the tornado as soon as NCDC gets the radar data up for the 4th. I don’t know why i drew the cold front red but work with me..
Tyler.
This tornado or what ever you want to call it! Touched down along Highway 24 near Perry, KS at 7:18cdt and moved ESE towards Williamstown, KS crossing highway 24 1 ¾ miles E of Williamstown where highway 24 jogs to the south for a mile or so.
What a day! We were just about to go home and we had one of the coolest tornadoes I have ever seen touch down right next to us. This was a tornado what wasn’t supposed to happen all typical meteorological wisdom would say the storm was highly elevated and it had very little chance of producing but the storm thought otherwise. I will try and post a detailed case study in the next day or two. This storm stopped a section of the cold font in its tracks and tapped the warm moist air to the SE of the supercell it was amazing! This is why I love meteorology and storm chasing the one odd ball rare event that just shocks everyone.
You can see the circulation is quite large and within the broad circulation you can see really tight suction vortices Reed Timmer is involved in some research on suction vortices I will try and get some links posted but from what Reed talked about at chasercon and the KC AMS meeting suction vortices can be much stronger then the parent circulation by orders of magnitude! They really churned up the freshly plowed dry fields which really helped the visuals.
Miles 440
SPC: Mod 5% over target.
Left home 2pm returned 1am
We are chasing and streaming live in SE KS and NE MO inside tornado watch #21.
You can call, text, facebook or tweet the show your questions today.
The SPC has put a large area of the southern plains and Mississippi valley under moderate risk for tomorrow. This means conditions are looking ripe for supercell thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, some strong and long track. In short a severe weather outbreak. The bulk of the activity looks to be after dark compounding the threat the storms are going to be fast moving. So take some time right now to go over your plan in case of a tornado. FEMA has a nice article “What to do during a tornado” check that out.
The Storm Patrol will be out chasing this event so check back tomorrow afternoon and evening to see if we are live.
A bit of meteorology.
The WRF / GFS Show a warm front / dryline setup with an open warm sector extending across eastern OK into AR. I have some doubts whether or not the cap will break in the open warm sector until after dark. I have attached some images showing where the GFS / WRF have the boundaries at 0z as well as some forecast skew-t’s showing the cap over Bartlesville, OK and Tulsa, OK at 0z. Have a look at this page on Jon Davies site explaining 700mb temps and cap strength. Model data from weather.cod.edu, Forecast SKEW-T’s from NIU’s Storm Machine
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