Well my phone kept ringing at 9am over and over so I rolled out of bed and picked it up. Turns out it was Andy Gabrielson letting me know that there was a nice supercell a county to the west. So I jumped into the car went after it. Around Altamont, KS I ran into quarter size hail which was so heavy it covered the road making it really weird to drive on. Anyway that was about it just some hail rain and some lightning.
Tyler.
120 miles
Left home 9 am
Returned 12:30 pm
What a great start to the season this chase was, in fact me and Tyler said this chase was probably better than nearly all of last seasons chases combined! This chase was also a great example of why not to put all of your confidence into the weather models, they can be wrong. Nearly all of the weather models had shown that Eastern KS and Oklahoma were going to be nearly void of storms because of a stout capping inversion, this did not end up being the case as weather soundings from Oklahoma City were showing. We began this chase at around 2:00 PM Sunday afternoon, headed west out of Pittsburg, KS to near Howard, KS where we observed a super cell approaching the Oklahoma/Kansas Border which we decided to attempt to intercept. This ended up being a great decision and we ended up with some great video and still of a weak tornado forming and coming to the ground north of Grainola, OK right on top of the Oklahoma/Kansas Border. We kept up with this cell and chased it back toward the home base of Pittsburg, at many times this cell regained a very strong looking couplet but it does not appear it ever produced a tornado again. The storms began to speed up once we were into the overnight hours and it was impossible to keep up with them. There ended up being one more tornado warned cell that approached Baxter Springs, KS from the West we were able to intercept but it never produced. This was a very rewarding chase, and one not that far from home. I wish all of our chases were this successful!
TOTAL MILES TRAVELED: 400
LEFT HOME: 2:00 PM
ARRIVED HOME: 11:00 PM
This was the first chase event of the year for The Storm Patrol Co-Host Jordan. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman issued a moderate risk for severe weather for this event, with a 15% hatched area for tornadoes over Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky. I just could not resist a chase event this early in the year. The weather models had been all over the place as to where and when this event would take place, we had been watching this event unfold for nearly a week. It originally looked like it might setup in western Oklahoma, but as the days went by the severe threat began moving farther and farther east. My chase Target was initially Little Rock, Arkansas for this day. I knew the initial storm mode would be linear but I figured there was a possibility of a few discrete super cells forming in front of the line. My plan was to head to Little Rock and make adjustments from there. This ended up how it played out, except the lone super cell that did form popped up in Tennessee which was way out of my range. I left Carthage, MO at around 8:30 AM and headed to Little Rock, dropped south to Malvern, AR and began traveling east to keep some distance between myself and the line of storms that was currently stretching from northeastern Texas through Missouri. I continued east in Arkansas until reaching Stuttgart, AR. By this point night was quickly approaching so I knew that if I was to be able to see anything it would have to occur in the next couple of hours. The area around Stuttgart is known for rice farming and the terrain is very favorable for chasing, there are few trees and few hills. I began heading northeast from Stuttgart to the town of Brinkley, AR at which time I only had about 1 hour of daylight left, and no super cells had popped ahead of the line except one lone tornado warned cell in Tennessee. A tornado warning was issued for a segment of the line that was now nearly over Little Rock, I knew that if I was going to see anything before dark it would be now or never. I got on I-40 and began racing towards the warned cell, it was near the town of Lonoke, AR when I arrived. The couplet appeared to be completely wrapped in train both according to radar and my observations. I could make out the definition of a wall cloud within the rain, and possibly a funnel, but that was the extent of it. The line of storms was traveling very fast so there was no possible way of keeping up with it at this point and it was nearly dark so I decided to call the chase and head back home.
TOTAL MILES TRAVELED: 830
LEFT HOME: 8:30 AM
ARRIVED HOME: 12:00 PM
We are chasing and streaming live in SE KS and NE MO inside tornado watch #21.
You can call, text, facebook or tweet the show your questions today.
The SPC has put a large area of the southern plains and Mississippi valley under moderate risk for tomorrow. This means conditions are looking ripe for supercell thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, some strong and long track. In short a severe weather outbreak. The bulk of the activity looks to be after dark compounding the threat the storms are going to be fast moving. So take some time right now to go over your plan in case of a tornado. FEMA has a nice article “What to do during a tornado” check that out.
The Storm Patrol will be out chasing this event so check back tomorrow afternoon and evening to see if we are live.
A bit of meteorology.
The WRF / GFS Show a warm front / dryline setup with an open warm sector extending across eastern OK into AR. I have some doubts whether or not the cap will break in the open warm sector until after dark. I have attached some images showing where the GFS / WRF have the boundaries at 0z as well as some forecast skew-t’s showing the cap over Bartlesville, OK and Tulsa, OK at 0z. Have a look at this page on Jon Davies site explaining 700mb temps and cap strength. Model data from weather.cod.edu, Forecast SKEW-T’s from NIU’s Storm Machine
The Storm Patrol is on location here at ChaserCon 2011. So far the presentations have been awesome with Dr. Karen Kosbia, Jon Davies, Mike Bettes, Dr. Greg Forbes and Reed Timmer. If you would like to watch from home check out SevereStudios.com.
Stay tuned to our Facebook and Twitter for updates throughout the event.
Tyler
Here is some video that I shot of a house fire in Pittsburg, KS at 4:30pm on 2-9-2011.
Check out this video!
Jordan left his iPhone on the side of the road during a storm chase. The Otter Box survived a severe thunderstorm and a cold front covering the phone in frost! Jordan and I both have iPhone4′s from Verizon on the way and you know what kind of case we will be using.
I have made some radar loops of the storm that went over the phone, the small red dot is the location of the iPhone in the Otter Box
Tyler.
The models are forecasting a powerful winter storm across OK, KS, MO and AR between the 8th and the 10th. I have attached some metogram outputs of bufkit data for Joplin, MO KJLN, Chanute, KS KCNU and Tulsa, OK KTUL. You can see the forecast snow totals are quite high but remember these are just model guidance not a crystal ball!
Well here is the after video.. The NWS said we had 13 to 18 inches.. It was VERY hard to tell as it was blowing all over the place.
SPC Products
